关键词: 中国企业, 涉外能源工程, 项目群, 地缘政治, 风险因素, 临界点, 风险储备, 概率

Abstract:

The geopolitical risk has seriously affected the execution of international energy multi-projects that causes them to suffer from massive cost overruns and schedule delays. To solve this problem, firstly, the risk factors of energy engineering projects are divided into complexity, pressure sources, and unconventional risks, and it is pointed out that project costs have a three peak distribution characteristic. Secondly, a geopolitical risk analysis framework for the Chinese enterprise international energy multi-projects is constructed, the evolution mechanism of the impact of geopolitical risks on project costs is analyzed, the “force majeure” clause is considered, and a risk reserve calculation model for international energy multi-projects based on parameter models, Monte Carlo and chaos theory integration is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of this study is verified through case studies. The study find that the total cost distribution of international multi-projects does not show a disordered state, but has a significant feature of long tail risk, indicating that once political risk occurs, it has a significant negative impact on the entire project group of the enterprise. Sensitivity analysis shows that the three major risks with higher impact are schedule risk, operational risk, and geopolitical risk. After reasonable claims, it is found that opportunities for the project group are increasing, such as taking over some general contracting or construction projects previously undertaken by western companies.

Key words: Chinese enterprise, international energy project, multi-projects, geopolitics, risk factor, critical point, risk reserve, probability