Abstract:

The geopolitical risk has seriously affected the execution of international energy multi-projects that causes them to suffer from massive cost overruns and schedule delays. To solve this problem, firstly, the risk factors of energy engineering projects are divided into complexity, pressure sources, and unconventional risks, and it is pointed out that project costs have a three peak distribution characteristic. Secondly, a geopolitical risk analysis framework for the Chinese enterprise international energy multi-projects is constructed, the evolution mechanism of the impact of geopolitical risks on project costs is analyzed, the “force majeure” clause is considered, and a risk reserve calculation model for international energy multi-projects based on parameter models, Monte Carlo and chaos theory integration is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of this study is verified through case studies. The study find that the total cost distribution of international multi-projects does not show a disordered state, but has a significant feature of long tail risk, indicating that once political risk occurs, it has a significant negative impact on the entire project group of the enterprise. Sensitivity analysis shows that the three major risks with higher impact are schedule risk, operational risk, and geopolitical risk. After reasonable claims, it is found that opportunities for the project group are increasing, such as taking over some general contracting or construction projects previously undertaken by western companies.

Key words: Chinese enterprise, international energy project, multi-projects, geopolitics, risk factor, critical point, risk reserve, probability

摘要：

地缘政治风险对涉外能源工程项目群影响较大，成本超支和进度延误现象频现。为解决此问题，首先，将能源工程项目风险因素划分为复杂性、压力源和非常规风险，指出了项目成本具备三峰分布特征。其次，构建了中国企业涉外能源工程项目群地缘政治风险分析框架，剖析地缘政治风险影响项目成本的演化机理，并考虑“不可抗力”条款，提出了基于参数模型、蒙特卡罗和混沌理论集成的涉外能源工程项目群风险储备测算模型。最后，通过案例验证本研究的有效性。研究发现涉外项目群总成本分布并不呈现无序状态，但具有长尾风险的显著特征，表明政治风险一旦发生，对企业整个项目群负面影响较大。敏感性分析显示影响较高的3大风险是工期风险、经营风险和地缘政治风险。经过合理索赔，发现有利于项目群的机会在增加，如接手一些原先由西方企业承揽的总承包或施工项目。

关键词: 中国企业, 涉外能源工程, 项目群, 地缘政治, 风险因素, 临界点, 风险储备, 概率